European Union nations and many US states are facing upsurges in COVID-19 which is a continuation of the trends...[we already identified]

Six days ago we asked the question whether Europe was about to suffer a second wave of COVID-19 infection. Today most countries have...

...a resurgence of COVID-19 reproduction rates with Turkey, Syria, Jordan, Israel, West Bank and UAE all reporting Reff rates above 1.0.

The COVID19.modeller presents a South Korean super surge underway with a large increase in new daily cases expected...

Norway and Finland have the highest Reff values but compared to Sweden they have relatively fewer new case numbers.

We promised an update on South Korea because its Reff is showing a remarkable and steep increase.

European countries have increasing COVID-19 reproduction (Reff) values above 1.0 and that has been true for some time.

The key takeaway from our closer look is that it's time to act before new daily cases increase and grow exponentially.

In my last blog post I noted that Northern California was performing worse than Southern California in terms of COVID19 reproduction numbers

Since 26 July 2020, and for nearly three weeks, the United States has suppressed COVID-19 below reproduction 1.0.

Our SIR+B method now says that Victoria Australia has Reff < 1 from 8 August 2020. See our time lapse animation of the method below. Here...

Victoria, Australia, is currently suffering an outbreak of COVID-19 and the state government is increasing social distance restrictions...

n this blog post we update our SIR+B method with the following improvements. The method uses improved noise handling and forecasting

In this blog post we have used the new and improved SIR+B process for calculating the Reff for various countries. Two examples are given.

A new method for calculating the Effective Reproduction Number

We have developed a new process for estimating the effective reproduction number - Reff - for COVID-19. The process combines an analytic...

We have completed some research into how New Zealand and other countries can minimize the cost of COVID-19 to society. To do this we have...

This article provides an overview of key topics to get you started using the COVID-19 Modeller. There are three sections - signing up,...

This help topic describes how to create an account and access the COVID-19 Modeller. The sign-up process will ask you to verify your...

By default you will have a public access rights to the model after sign up. See the following table for use rights. You need to belong...