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  • Writer's pictureStephen Grice

Help - About the Model

The simulation tool allows business and government users to access shared input values. Sharing input values allows government and business users to plan using the same information and to coordinate across government.

The simulation tool also allows you access a shared set of input values (initial conditions) which have the following properties

  1. They are updated daily by data scientists that review the initial conditions in order to make the short term predictions as accurate as possible.

  2. They are reviewed regularly to be consistent with the long term predictions that are released about every 2 weeks by TPM for the Ministry of Health.

  3. They have the best medium term deterministic forecast possible within the two constraints above.

So how should I use the model and the simulation data?

  • The short term predictions (1-10 days) are extremely accurate for the purposes of short term planning and decision making and can be relied upon.

  • The medium term predictions (10-30 days) are the best information and can be used for operational planning and resource allocation knowing that things can change.

  • The long term predictions (> 30 days) are uncertain and is entirely dependent on the choice of R0 and future mitigations. The government long term forecasts are revised periodically by TPM on behalf of the Ministry of Health and our long term forecasts kept as consistent with this official source as possible.

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