• Leon Grice

Second waves in Europe and USA

The worrying trends have continued since we reported on 22 September here and on 10 September here that reproduction numbers were persisting above Reff=1.0 (the redline indicating pandemic's signature exponential growth).


There is a clear second wave building in both continents as we transition from autumn/fall and head into winter. The UK has just recorded 12,000+ daily cases which is significantly above the first wave peaks in April this year. See here. Germany has not had its Reff=1.0 since the end of June and has managed to keep daily new cases relatively low but there are signs a wave is starting to build. See here.

France, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany and central Europe all have growing reproduction numbers. The growing problem is consistent across most countries, especially in central european states.


The United States has a steadily building second wave. The northeast, mid-west and mountain states have the highest Reff numbers. The overall trend is up across the continent. The mountain states of the west from Montana down to New Mexico have waves building. For some of those states like Montana it is their first wave.

The Northeast, states like New Hampshire and Massachusetts have counties with high Reff numbers and New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania have increasing Reff numbers and daily cases. See New York here and in the diagram below.

Wear a mask. Wash your hands with soap regularly and frequently. Physical distance as much as possible.




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