• Leon Grice

The UK is getting worse

In our last blog on 10 September our headline was "UK's new restrictions are needed" which was the day new social distancing measures were announced and on that day we calculated Reff=1.7. We also pointed to our 19 August blog "Europe's second wave?" which highlighted that the UK's Reff went above 1.0 on 14 July. In that blog "we noted that the UK's Reff "seems to be coming down but if it stays above 1.0 you can expect daily cases to increase.""

Today we calculate Reff=1.8 and it hasn't been below the redline 1.0 since mid July. https://covid19.closeassociate.com/region/gb This is bad news. Daily case counts are climbing steeply and in the next ten days it will be challenging the peaks that the UK endured in April.

The Independent newspaper reports https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-coronavirus-restrictions-second-wave-b516796.html "the chief medical officers of all four nations of the UK lifted the Covid-19 alert level to 4, indicating the pandemic is in general circulation with transmission “high or rising exponentially”. And in a chilling warning, the prime minister’s chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance warned that unless more is done to curb the rate of spread of the infection, cases could rise to 50,000 daily by mid-October – many times the 6,000 officially recorded at the height of the first wave in April and May, with an inevitable rise in hospitalisations and deaths."

Our analysis is this surge began nine weeks ago in mid-July 2020 and we called it mid-August.

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