• Leon Grice

US' COVID-19 reproduction rate falls below 1.0

The US has been through a mega second wave of COVID-19 through Fall and early Winter but our modeller shows that State lockdowns and behavior changes started to have an impact in late November with falling reproduction rates across the Continent. Daily case reporting has been very high, up to 250,000 cases per day, tens of thousands of deaths have been recorded and hospitals have been struggling to cope.


But the lowering reproduction rate augurs well for the next short period. The @closeassociate model showed reproduction going above 1.0 in late September and growing for eight weeks right through the US election period. But by mid-December the rate fell R<1.0. Go to COVID-19 Modeller (closeassociate.com) to explore State by State and County by County.



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