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  • Writer's pictureLeon Grice

USA - what a difference a month makes

We have been in hiatus while establishing and we last reported on 6 January 2021 on worsening data from the US and the UK with dramatically increasing daily cases and reproduction numbers well above 1.0. [This was one day before the mob stormed the Capitol in Washington DC. US readers: NZ is a day ahead.] We noted that stay-at-home orders were being issued and we could expect the case numbers would start to fall in 14 days.

Our model shows that in the US the reproduction rate fell below 1.0 on 9 January 2021. Today, two States have reproduction rates above 1.0, namely Minnesota (1.04) and Tennessee (1.2) and all other States are well under 1.0. If the US stays on track we can expect daily case numbers to fall significantly from just under 90,000 cases two days ago. That "good number" is still 20,000 cases per day higher than the second surge in July 2020.

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