Reff < 1 CONGRATULATIONS VICTORIANS
Our SIR+B method now says that Victoria Australia has Reff < 1 from 8 August 2020. See our time lapse animation of the method below.
Here are some interesting points to note:
First identified outbreak at Rydges
Our SIR+B method picks up the first attributable outbreak on or about 12 June (17 days after the first Rydges case) as Reff > 1
Later in the timeseries (say 19 July), as more daily case data is known, the Rydges outbreak signal is back dated to on or about the 12 May (5 days after the outbreak)
Information about the Stamford outbreak (17 June) first starts to appear on 14 July.
It's seen as an inflection in the increase in Reff.
By 21 July the inflection point is clearly seen
Reff peaks at 2.5 on or about 10 July
Social distance measures applied
A series of increasing restrictions are applied by the Victoria government from 29 July
A state of disaster is declared on 2 August with severe restrictions
Reff < 1
As expected lockdown measures start take effect and appear in SIR+B data with Reff decreasing from 13 July
SIR+B Reff < 1 for first time on 8 August
We realise that these are bold claims. We have now accumulated enough global data and observed enough features that appear in our method to have confidence in the method to make these assertions.
The benefit of SIR+B has over other comparative methods is the ability to extract signal from very noisy real world data. Our method is more responsive, more accurate and more predictive than the current art and other methods that have been developed during COVID-19 outbreak.
The good news is that Victoria has the growth of disease under control now.
Here is a snapshot in time dated 2 August of the Victorian news events and SIR+B data that shows some of the detail in the time-lapse movie.